Ethiopia Baseline Risk Analysis

Analysis last updated 12-10-2021.


This document is an initial exploration into risk of humanitarian need in Ethiopia. We’re focusing most closely on climate-related risks, such as floods and drought. This document presents the outputs of basic data collection and analysis. It is intended to provide a starting point for a more in depth risk analysis for Ethiopia’s upcoming Humanitarian Needs Overview.

Historical Analysis

Frequency of past drought and flood events

The figure below shows the national count of shock events per year, as recorded in EM-DAT.

National count of shock events per year

National count of shock events per year

The figure below shows the frquency of floods (left) and drought (right) by region since 1965.

Historical frequency of shock events by RegionHistorical frequency of shock events by Region

Historical frequency of shock events by Region

The tables below show the full lists of both the flood and drought events from EM-DAT.

List of flood events
Year Location Origin Total Affected
1968 Kelafo NA 16000
1976 Gode, Kelafo, Mustahil NA 70000
1977 Awash River Valley NA 16000
1978 NA NA 1000
1981 Kalafo NA 20000
1985 Rift Valley region NA 8000
Ogaden NA 20000
1988 Gambella NA 45000
Sidamo province, /Dollo NA 2240
1990 Gambela region Heavy rain 350000
1993 Near Addis Abeba NA 4800
Gollam, Gonder regions NA 30000
1994 North Shoa, South Welo, Tach Gayint district (Gonder province) Heavy rain 43014
1995 Kelafo, Mustahil, Ferfer, Burukur (Eastern Ogaden region) Heavy rain 93875
1996 Gambella Region NA 90000
Gambella region, East-Shoa, Wanji provinces Heavy rains 25000
1997 Afder and Liben districts (Somali region), Gode, Haregele, Dollo regions Heavy rain 65000
Arba Minch region Heavy rain 22
1999 Mustahil, Kefalo (Ogaden region of South-East Ethiopia) Brief torrential rain 79000
Iowlands Heavy rain 6755
Sud Tigré (Nord) NA 500
Zone D’assosa (Region Du Beninshangul-Gumuz) NA NA
Limu District (South Of Ethiopia) NA 45000
Itang District NA 16000
2000 Dubti area (Zone 1 district, Afar province) Heavy rain 30000
Nazareth city (East Shewa district, Oromia province), Region 14 district (Addis Ababa province) NA NA
2001 Dubti, Asaita areas (Zone 1 district, Afar province) NA 31000
Gambela province NA 6000
Himora town (Western district, Tigray province) NA 2500
2002 Afar, Oromia, Somali region Heavy rain 4000
2003 Somali province Hevay rains 110000
2005 Dire Dawa, Somali provinces Heavy rains 235418
Tigray, Oromia, Amhara provinces Heavy rains NA
Dire Dawa province NA NA
Oromia province Heavy rains 7000
2006 Dire Dawa district (Dire Dawa province), Addis Ketema, Genfele, Coca Cola, Aftessa boroughs (Region 14 district, Addis Ababa province) Heavy Rain 10096
Afar, Somali provinces Heavy rain 10000
Tigray province NA 450
Omorate, Gangato villages (South Omo district, SNNPR province) Heavy rain 8000
Amhara, Gambela, Afar provinces Heavy rain 38000
Gambela province NA 6000
Gode, Kelafo, Mustahil, East Imi, Ferfer, Denan towns (Shabelle district, Somali province), Kebri Dehar town (Korahe district, Somali province) Heavy rain 361600
2007 South Omo district (SNNPR province) Heavy rain 5800
Gambela, Amhara, SNNPR, Addis Ababa, Afar, Tigray, Somali provinces Heavy rain 239586
2008 Gambela province Heavy seasonal rains 91764
Jijiga town (Fafan district, Somali province) Heavy rains 845
West Imi town (Afder district, Somali province), Dolo town (Doolo district, Somali province), Kebri Beyah town (Fafan district, Somali province), Halaba area (Selti district, SNNPR province), Kachabira area (KT district, SNNPR province), Mustahil, Kelafo, East Imi towns (Shabelle district, Somali province), Ginir town (Bale district, Oromia province), Shashogo area (Hadiya district, SNNPR province), Gelana area (South Wollo district, Amhara province) Heavy rains 23831
2010 Mustahil, Kelafo villages (Shabelle district, Somali province) Heavy rains 55700
Afar, Amhara, Tigray provinces Heavy rains 25000
2011 Mustahil, Kelafo villages (Shabelle district, Somali province) NA 40200
2013 Korahe, Jarar, Shabelle districts (Somali province), Wolayita, Sidama districts (SNNPR province) NA 51500
2015 Shabelle district (Somali province) NA 210600
2016 Jijiga city (Fafan district, Somali province), Wolayita district (SNNPR province), Afar, Amhara, Tigray, Oromia provinces Torrential rains, El Nino 3080
Wolayita district (SNNPR province), Bale district (Oromia province) Torrential rains 490000
2019 Somali region NA 200000
2020 Dire Dawa City, SNNPR NA 219000
South Gondar zone (Amhara Region); Afar, Gambella, Oromia, Somali, SNNPR Heavy rains 1010854



List of drought events
Year Location Origin Total Affected
1965 Nationwide NA 1500000
1969 Hamasion division NA 1700000
1973 Tigre, Wollo, North Shoa, Tigray, Kangra provinces NA 3000000
1983 Wollo, Gondar, Goe, Eritrea, Tigrai, Shoa, Harerge, Sidamo NA 7750000
1987 Ogaden, Eritrea, Tigray, Wello, Shewa, Gama, Gofa, Sidamo, Gondar, Bale NA 7000000
1989 Northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tigray, Wollo, Gondar, Harerge NA 6500000
1997 Borena, Bale (Oromiya state) South Ome zone, Somali state NA 986200
1998 NA NA NA
1999 North Wollo, South Wollo, Oromia, Wag Himra districts (Amhara province), Southern district (Tigray province), Beneshangul Gumu, Gambela, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali provinces NA 4900000
2003 Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, Somali, Afar provinces Crop failure, lack pasture, poor/erratic long rains 12600000
2005 Afder, Liben districts (Somali province), Gode zones (Shabelle district, Somali province), Borena district (Oromiya province) Successive failed rainy seasons 2600000
2008 Oromia, Somali, Amhara, Afar, Tigray, SNNPR provinces Heavy drought, weak reany season, loss of animals, food shortages and increase of prices 6400000
2009 Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, SNNP, Gambela provinces Poor rainfall 6200000
2010 Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara provinces La Nina 4805679
2011 Dire Dawa, Gambela, Hareri, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali, Addis Ababa provinces (Southern Ethiopia) Consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, rapid population growth, sustained high food prices, endemic poverty 1000000
2015 Somali, Afar, Oromia, Amhara, Nations du Sud provinces El Nino 10200000
2021 Tigray, Afar and Amhara NA 5500000



Other potentially relevant datasets

  1. Global Flood Database
  • Gridded data of historical flood extents available via Google Earth Engine.
  • Includes flood events from 2000-2018. Ethiopia has 28 events recorded.
  • Events identified from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, with flood extent mapped using MODIS satellite imagery.
  1. IDMC
  • Number of IDPs, relating to conflict and disaster.
  • Not subnational.
  • Data available between 2008-2020.
  1. FAOSTAT Food Security Indicators
  • National level indicators from 2000-2020
  • Such as: Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) (3-year average), Number of severely food insecure people (million) (3-year average), Percentage of population using safely managed sanitation services (Percent)

Near-present situation

IDP population

The figures below show the basic spatial distribution, volume, and demographics of Ethiopia’s IDP population as identified by the IOM DTM Site Assessment conducted in July 2021.

IDP population breakdown by gender at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population

IDP population breakdown by gender at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population

IDP population breakdown by age at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population

IDP population breakdown by age at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population

Reason for displacement of IDPs at Admin 2 level

Reason for displacement of IDPs at Admin 2 level

Standardized Precipitation Index

As researched in past MapAction work in Ethiopia:

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most commonly used indicator worldwide for detecting and characterizing meteorological droughts. It measures precipitation anomalies at a given location based on a comparison of observed total precipitation amounts for an accumulation period of interest (e.g. 3, 6, 9 months), with the long-term historic rainfall record for that period. Rainfall deficits (i.e. meteorological droughts) are indicated as SPI decreases below -1.0, while excess rainfall are indicated as SPI increases above 1.0. As SPI values are in units of standard deviation from the long-term mean, the indicator can be used to compare precipitation anomalies for any geographic location and for any number of time scales. The World Meteorological Organization has recommended that the SPI be used by all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world to characterize meteorological droughts

The figure below shows the 3-month SPI for Ethiopia in September 2021, generated by IRI’s Global Drought Analysis Tool.

Forecasted situation

The OND season will most likely be poor. A first set of projections for MAM 2022 (by the Climate Hazard Center) are pessimistic. Note that forecasts for MAM are still early and particularly subject to change as the season draws nearer. Still, we have an early signal that we may be facing two more poor rainy seasons.

October, November, December - 2021

January, February, March - 2022

February, March, April - 2022