Ethiopia Baseline Risk Analysis
Analysis last updated 12-10-2021.
This document is an initial exploration into risk of humanitarian need in Ethiopia. We’re focusing most closely on climate-related risks, such as floods and drought. This document presents the outputs of basic data collection and analysis. It is intended to provide a starting point for a more in depth risk analysis for Ethiopia’s upcoming Humanitarian Needs Overview.
Historical Analysis
Frequency of past drought and flood events
The figure below shows the national count of shock events per year, as recorded in EM-DAT.
National count of shock events per year
The figure below shows the frquency of floods (left) and drought (right) by region since 1965.
Historical frequency of shock events by Region
The tables below show the full lists of both the flood and drought events from EM-DAT.
| Year | Location | Origin | Total Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1968 | Kelafo | NA | 16000 |
| 1976 | Gode, Kelafo, Mustahil | NA | 70000 |
| 1977 | Awash River Valley | NA | 16000 |
| 1978 | NA | NA | 1000 |
| 1981 | Kalafo | NA | 20000 |
| 1985 | Rift Valley region | NA | 8000 |
| Ogaden | NA | 20000 | |
| 1988 | Gambella | NA | 45000 |
| Sidamo province, /Dollo | NA | 2240 | |
| 1990 | Gambela region | Heavy rain | 350000 |
| 1993 | Near Addis Abeba | NA | 4800 |
| Gollam, Gonder regions | NA | 30000 | |
| 1994 | North Shoa, South Welo, Tach Gayint district (Gonder province) | Heavy rain | 43014 |
| 1995 | Kelafo, Mustahil, Ferfer, Burukur (Eastern Ogaden region) | Heavy rain | 93875 |
| 1996 | Gambella Region | NA | 90000 |
| Gambella region, East-Shoa, Wanji provinces | Heavy rains | 25000 | |
| 1997 | Afder and Liben districts (Somali region), Gode, Haregele, Dollo regions | Heavy rain | 65000 |
| Arba Minch region | Heavy rain | 22 | |
| 1999 | Mustahil, Kefalo (Ogaden region of South-East Ethiopia) | Brief torrential rain | 79000 |
| Iowlands | Heavy rain | 6755 | |
| Sud Tigré (Nord) | NA | 500 | |
| Zone D’assosa (Region Du Beninshangul-Gumuz) | NA | NA | |
| Limu District (South Of Ethiopia) | NA | 45000 | |
| Itang District | NA | 16000 | |
| 2000 | Dubti area (Zone 1 district, Afar province) | Heavy rain | 30000 |
| Nazareth city (East Shewa district, Oromia province), Region 14 district (Addis Ababa province) | NA | NA | |
| 2001 | Dubti, Asaita areas (Zone 1 district, Afar province) | NA | 31000 |
| Gambela province | NA | 6000 | |
| Himora town (Western district, Tigray province) | NA | 2500 | |
| 2002 | Afar, Oromia, Somali region | Heavy rain | 4000 |
| 2003 | Somali province | Hevay rains | 110000 |
| 2005 | Dire Dawa, Somali provinces | Heavy rains | 235418 |
| Tigray, Oromia, Amhara provinces | Heavy rains | NA | |
| Dire Dawa province | NA | NA | |
| Oromia province | Heavy rains | 7000 | |
| 2006 | Dire Dawa district (Dire Dawa province), Addis Ketema, Genfele, Coca Cola, Aftessa boroughs (Region 14 district, Addis Ababa province) | Heavy Rain | 10096 |
| Afar, Somali provinces | Heavy rain | 10000 | |
| Tigray province | NA | 450 | |
| Omorate, Gangato villages (South Omo district, SNNPR province) | Heavy rain | 8000 | |
| Amhara, Gambela, Afar provinces | Heavy rain | 38000 | |
| Gambela province | NA | 6000 | |
| Gode, Kelafo, Mustahil, East Imi, Ferfer, Denan towns (Shabelle district, Somali province), Kebri Dehar town (Korahe district, Somali province) | Heavy rain | 361600 | |
| 2007 | South Omo district (SNNPR province) | Heavy rain | 5800 |
| Gambela, Amhara, SNNPR, Addis Ababa, Afar, Tigray, Somali provinces | Heavy rain | 239586 | |
| 2008 | Gambela province | Heavy seasonal rains | 91764 |
| Jijiga town (Fafan district, Somali province) | Heavy rains | 845 | |
| West Imi town (Afder district, Somali province), Dolo town (Doolo district, Somali province), Kebri Beyah town (Fafan district, Somali province), Halaba area (Selti district, SNNPR province), Kachabira area (KT district, SNNPR province), Mustahil, Kelafo, East Imi towns (Shabelle district, Somali province), Ginir town (Bale district, Oromia province), Shashogo area (Hadiya district, SNNPR province), Gelana area (South Wollo district, Amhara province) | Heavy rains | 23831 | |
| 2010 | Mustahil, Kelafo villages (Shabelle district, Somali province) | Heavy rains | 55700 |
| Afar, Amhara, Tigray provinces | Heavy rains | 25000 | |
| 2011 | Mustahil, Kelafo villages (Shabelle district, Somali province) | NA | 40200 |
| 2013 | Korahe, Jarar, Shabelle districts (Somali province), Wolayita, Sidama districts (SNNPR province) | NA | 51500 |
| 2015 | Shabelle district (Somali province) | NA | 210600 |
| 2016 | Jijiga city (Fafan district, Somali province), Wolayita district (SNNPR province), Afar, Amhara, Tigray, Oromia provinces | Torrential rains, El Nino | 3080 |
| Wolayita district (SNNPR province), Bale district (Oromia province) | Torrential rains | 490000 | |
| 2019 | Somali region | NA | 200000 |
| 2020 | Dire Dawa City, SNNPR | NA | 219000 |
| South Gondar zone (Amhara Region); Afar, Gambella, Oromia, Somali, SNNPR | Heavy rains | 1010854 |
| Year | Location | Origin | Total Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1965 | Nationwide | NA | 1500000 |
| 1969 | Hamasion division | NA | 1700000 |
| 1973 | Tigre, Wollo, North Shoa, Tigray, Kangra provinces | NA | 3000000 |
| 1983 | Wollo, Gondar, Goe, Eritrea, Tigrai, Shoa, Harerge, Sidamo | NA | 7750000 |
| 1987 | Ogaden, Eritrea, Tigray, Wello, Shewa, Gama, Gofa, Sidamo, Gondar, Bale | NA | 7000000 |
| 1989 | Northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tigray, Wollo, Gondar, Harerge | NA | 6500000 |
| 1997 | Borena, Bale (Oromiya state) South Ome zone, Somali state | NA | 986200 |
| 1998 | NA | NA | NA |
| 1999 | North Wollo, South Wollo, Oromia, Wag Himra districts (Amhara province), Southern district (Tigray province), Beneshangul Gumu, Gambela, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali provinces | NA | 4900000 |
| 2003 | Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, Somali, Afar provinces | Crop failure, lack pasture, poor/erratic long rains | 12600000 |
| 2005 | Afder, Liben districts (Somali province), Gode zones (Shabelle district, Somali province), Borena district (Oromiya province) | Successive failed rainy seasons | 2600000 |
| 2008 | Oromia, Somali, Amhara, Afar, Tigray, SNNPR provinces | Heavy drought, weak reany season, loss of animals, food shortages and increase of prices | 6400000 |
| 2009 | Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara, SNNP, Gambela provinces | Poor rainfall | 6200000 |
| 2010 | Somali, Oromia, Afar, Tigray, Amhara provinces | La Nina | 4805679 |
| 2011 | Dire Dawa, Gambela, Hareri, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali, Addis Ababa provinces (Southern Ethiopia) | Consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, rapid population growth, sustained high food prices, endemic poverty | 1000000 |
| 2015 | Somali, Afar, Oromia, Amhara, Nations du Sud provinces | El Nino | 10200000 |
| 2021 | Tigray, Afar and Amhara | NA | 5500000 |
Other potentially relevant datasets
- Gridded data of historical flood extents available via Google Earth Engine.
- Includes flood events from 2000-2018. Ethiopia has 28 events recorded.
- Events identified from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, with flood extent mapped using MODIS satellite imagery.
- Number of IDPs, relating to conflict and disaster.
- Not subnational.
- Data available between 2008-2020.
- National level indicators from 2000-2020
- Such as: Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) (3-year average), Number of severely food insecure people (million) (3-year average), Percentage of population using safely managed sanitation services (Percent)
Near-present situation
IDP population
The figures below show the basic spatial distribution, volume, and demographics of Ethiopia’s IDP population as identified by the IOM DTM Site Assessment conducted in July 2021.
IDP population breakdown by gender at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population
IDP population breakdown by age at Admin 2 level, symbols scaled by total IDP population
Reason for displacement of IDPs at Admin 2 level
Standardized Precipitation Index
As researched in past MapAction work in Ethiopia:
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most commonly used indicator worldwide for detecting and characterizing meteorological droughts. It measures precipitation anomalies at a given location based on a comparison of observed total precipitation amounts for an accumulation period of interest (e.g. 3, 6, 9 months), with the long-term historic rainfall record for that period. Rainfall deficits (i.e. meteorological droughts) are indicated as SPI decreases below -1.0, while excess rainfall are indicated as SPI increases above 1.0. As SPI values are in units of standard deviation from the long-term mean, the indicator can be used to compare precipitation anomalies for any geographic location and for any number of time scales. The World Meteorological Organization has recommended that the SPI be used by all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world to characterize meteorological droughts
The figure below shows the 3-month SPI for Ethiopia in September 2021, generated by IRI’s Global Drought Analysis Tool.
Forecasted situation
The OND season will most likely be poor. A first set of projections for MAM 2022 (by the Climate Hazard Center) are pessimistic. Note that forecasts for MAM are still early and particularly subject to change as the season draws nearer. Still, we have an early signal that we may be facing two more poor rainy seasons.
October, November, December - 2021
January, February, March - 2022
February, March, April - 2022
